Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Where is the risk premium II?

In the recent 55 years between 1955 and 2009, the average effective Fed Funds Rate was 5,52%. In the same period, the average annual return of S&P500 index reached 6,40% - that's a difference of just 88 pp!

Meanwhile, in the recent 34years between 1976 and 2009, the average yield of Moody's AAA bonds was 8,36% vs 7,63% returned by S&P500. The Fed Funds Rate averaged 6,13%. Even that the risk premium for S&P500 was a little higher - 151 pp - than in the first analyzed period, it was below the premium on AAA bonds!

It is also worth mentioning that no straight correlations between GDP, Fed Funds Rate and GDP existed

correlation      GDP        Fed Funds Rate
S&P500           -0.0383    -0.0689
GDP                         -0.0627

GDP vs Fed Funds Rate vs S&P500 [%] (1955-2009)

XLS file: http://www.mediafire.com/?yonzywyzizj

Data sources: FFR & AAA - Federal Reserve, GDP - BEA, S&P500 - Stooq

Note: the previous post, "Where is the risk premium?" was temporarily removed for revision and update.

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