Since then the index has risen by 1.44%, mostly thanks to a 1% jump on February 1st.
Maybe I'm just suborn but my bad feelings didn't go away... yet.
Through the previous month, S&P500 levitated between two other major indexes: British FTSE and German DAX:
In the coming week one of these directions - FTSE's positive momentum or DAX's negative - will most probably win.
In addition, S&P500 (together with DJIA)'s momentum has recently noticeably surpassed that of NASDAQ:
Therefore I have decided to take a closer look at the intraday structure of the S&P500 dynamics.
It is still impossible to find definitive answer there, but a number of very weak signals suggests S&P500 may have peaked last week:
- in the last 3 days we can notice a negative drift with lower lows and peaks
- the frequency of local extremes increased
- the amplitudes of the down moves has been increasing
- the volatility is slightly increasing