Thursday, September 25, 2014

Commodity prices and KGHM stock price


The stock price of KGHM is falling since the late August.

The KGHM moves follow changes in prices of copper and silver - two key KGHM products.


Source: stooq

Predicting commodity prices may be tricky, so let's focus instead on their past behavior in Q2 and - nearly finished - Q3.

Even though the prices of both copper and silver have decreased from the begining of Q3 till now, the average price of them actually increased - by 3% in case of copper and by 1,1% for silver.

Since KGHM reports its results in PLN, we should also take currency into consideration.

Because USD has strenghted in Q3, in PLN terms, copper price increased by 6.3% and silver by 4,4%.


black - Q2 prices and average
red - Q3 prices and average


                  Q2        Q3     Q3/Q2%
copper USD  309.0300  317.8600 0.03000000
copper PLN  938.0078  997.6208 0.06355287
silver USD 1965.0969 1987.2661 0.01128151
silver PLN 5965.5656 6232.2229 0.04469943

One additional element that may influence the KGHM Q3 results scheduled for publication in November, is the recently started Sierra Gorda mine production.

The effect of Sierra Gorda will be marginal in Q3, but should increase in the following quaters - posittivelly affecting both production and average cost levels.


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