Friday, September 16, 2011

Gold - correction or trend change?

While the five central banks decide to cooperate in providing dollar liquidity, gold is falling:

Fig. Gold futures vs USDJPY and USDCHF

Even though historically Q4 was on average positive for gold, September tends to be quite volatile, with significant downside potential.

Gold has been recently positively correlated to safe heaven currencies such as Swiss franc and Japanese yen (both in relation to U.S. dollar), and at the same time negatively correlated to equities.

Since mid-August, the raise of the yen against dollar has been stopped. In September SNB semi-fixated franc against the euro, simultaneously causing USDCHF to raise.

Basically price of gold has been recently driven by three fundamental factors: fear about global economy, possibility of high inflation and low interest rates. While economy is improving extremely slowly, inflation is haunting emerging markets, and interest rates should remain on low level through 2013, all these factors are probably already discounted in the price of gold. Unless a new fear factor emerges, gold may stagnate. And slow correction may easily turn into disorderly liquidation...

So far, the proposed gold-crude pair trade would be in the positive territory.

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